Predicting Soybean Input Profitability

March 30, 2021

TRIAL OBJECTIVE 

Soybean producers have many decisions to make regarding their inputs and agronomic system. However, benefits from different inputs are not always mutually exclusive.
The objective of this trial is to determine the effect of high-input management systems and their individual components on soybean yield.
Bayesian economic analysis is used to predict break-even probabilities of these high input soybean systems.

Variety Type:
- Non-Defensive: These products had lower disease tolerance ratings for disease(s) of concern in the trial location.
- Defensive: Products identified as “Defensive” were selected for their relatively high disease tolerance ratings for disease(s) of concern in the trial location.

Small plot dimensions approximately 10x30 ft.
- Three replications per location, and means were separated using Fisher’s LSD (α = 0.10)
- 31 internal sites in 2021 in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Kansas, Tennessee, Arkansas, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Disease pressure, in general, was overall very low at the 31 U.S. locations in 2020.
- On a 1-9 disease intensity scale (with a value of 1 signifying no disease) the overall average from all plots were:
  - Sudden Death Syndrome = 1.1
  - White Mold = 1.0
  - Frogeye Leaf Spot = 1.1

Figure 1. Average soybean yield from high and low input soybean systems.

Table 1. Break-even probabilities for input systems compared to base treatment (Treatment 6) at multiple yield levels and soybean sale prices.*

Figure 2. Side-by-side comparison of High-Input System. Left - Insecticide Only Right - Fungicide plus Insecticide

In these trials, the high input system (Treatment 1) had a greater average yield compared to the low input system (Treatment 6) of 4.1 bu/acre.
- Additionally, all the high input systems (Treatments 1 through 5) out yielded the base low input system (Treatment 6).
Adding foliar fungicide (Treatment 7) increased average yield compared to low input system (Treatment 6).
Input systems in this analysis generally have a high probability of breaking even with the soybean price and yield levels displayed in Table 1 except for the “Low + ILeVO® seed treatment” system (Treatment 9).
More site-years are desired for this study to help make region-specific recommendations with a more robust data set. This trial will be conducted again in 2021.

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